Homes that sold in September took just 32 days, faster than last year. Yet sales hit a multi-year September low and the benchmark slipped again. The market hasn’t stopped; it has become selective.
The average sale price moves with the mix of homes sold each month. The MLS® HPI benchmark below tracks like-for-like value and is the steadier gauge.
September produced 160 sales across Oakville — 19% below August’s 197 and 14% below last September’s 187, the quietest September in recent years. August’s cooling could still be read as a normal summer dip at the time. It now appears to have been more than a seasonal summer dip. The market usually picks up again once the break ends. This year it didn’t. September sales not only failed to recover, they fell further, and the year-over-year gap widened. The fall pickup everyone was waiting for never arrived.
January through September, the year stands at 1,923 sales, still 1% ahead of last year’s 1,897. In July that lead was 4%. Two months have taken three points off it.
On the supply side, 704 new listings came to market in September, up 64% from August’s 429. That is the normal pattern: a wave of homes lists every year once the summer ends. In other words, buyers did not return for the fall, but sellers did, right on schedule. Against past Septembers, though, this year’s 704 is still the fewest in recent years, 19% below last September’s 864.
On price, September’s benchmark came in at $1,140,100, down another 2.2% on the month and 3.5% below last September, a one-year low. August’s softening alone was not enough to go on. September brought another decline. Pull the lens back: September’s benchmark has gone from $1.40M in 2023 to $1.14M this year, three straight years of decline.
One number runs against the grain. Sales are falling and prices are slipping, yet the homes that sold in September took just 32 days on average, six days faster than last September. There are still buyers in the market; they have simply become more selective. Homes priced off the mark can sit unsold and never enter this figure, while well-prepared, well-positioned homes can still move quickly.
September’s benchmark came in at $1,140,100, down 2.2% on the month and 3.5% on the year, below the prior one-year low set this March. A year ago it stood at $1,181,800. Looking at September year over year, the benchmark has declined for three consecutive years: $1,403,800 (2023), $1,314,600 (2024), $1,181,800 (2025), $1,140,100 (2026).
Average and median prices move with the mix of homes sold each month, and can paint an inaccurate picture of values and trends. The MLS® Home Price Index uses more than 15 years of MLS® System data and statistical models to define a “typical” home for each neighbourhood and housing type, then tracks its value month by month. That like-for-like comparison makes it a more consistent gauge of a neighbourhood’s price levels and trends.
Axis starts at $1.05M to make the gaps readable.
The fall pickup never came: sales keep falling, listings rose with the season but stay below past years, prices are adjusting again, and yet the homes that sell are moving faster than last year. The main indicators are pulling in different directions.Key insight · September 2026
Why is this happening? The broader economic backdrop remains uncertain. Canada–US trade tensions, interest-rate expectations and overall confidence can all affect buying decisions. From what we are seeing with clients, hesitation is still very much part of the market.
What the data tells us more clearly is this: sales are down and prices are adjusting, yet the homes that do sell are not taking longer to find a buyer. This is not a market without buyers. It is a market where buyers are more selective and more sensitive to price.
Buyers are more selective and more sensitive to price, but the 32-day average shows that the market still has liquidity. Preparation, pricing and execution matter more in a market like this. Do the work before launch where possible, then pay close attention to what the first round of market feedback is telling you.
Listings remain low by recent September standards, but sales are even softer, giving buyers more room to negotiate. The right home still deserves a serious look. If it’s the one, don’t wait; if it isn’t, don’t chase.
October is the month to watch: the last fall wave of listings and sales will show whether this pause is easing or deepening. We track it every month. See you next issue.
For a closer look at Old Oakville, Morrison and Ford, see the Southeast Oakville Market Brief.
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