Homes that sold took 34 days on average, more than three weeks faster than last year. But only 13 sold, close to half of last September; new listings were a four-year low for the month, and all three benchmarks slipped more than 2%. Southeast buyers are still here. They are just choosier.
With so few sales each month in these three communities, averages and ratios swing on individual deals. The HPI benchmark below is the steadier gauge of value.
Behind the thirteen sales: supply, pace and where the benchmarks moved.
September brought 13 sales across the three communities — up from August’s nine, but little more than half of last September’s 23 and below the 20 of 2024. The lead built in the spring is still there, but narrowing: 156 sales to date against 133 last year, 17% ahead. In August that lead was 30%. The pattern matches the town: the usual fall pickup never came, with Oakville-wide sales down 14% on the year and the southeast falling further still.
Supply was quieter still. 70 new listings came to market, 59% more than August’s 44 as the usual post-summer wave arrived — yet still the fewest for a September in four years, after 73, 76 and 85 in the three before. Supply remains unusually tight. It is the same pattern town-wide, where September’s 704 new listings were also the fewest for the month in recent years.
What sold still moved: 34 days on market on average, level with August and 23 days faster than last September. The sale-to-list ratio of 93.7% recovered two points from August’s four-year low, but remains the lowest September in four years — buyers are still negotiating hard. The $2.50M average rests on just thirteen sales.
The benchmarks did not hold flat this month. All three single-family benchmarks eased together: Morrison −2.2% to $3.20M, Old Oakville −2.7% to $2.46M, Ford −2.4% to $1.69M, and 3.8%, 3.1% and 6.0% below last September respectively. All three moved in step with the town-wide benchmark’s 2.2% decline.
For the town-wide view, see this month’s Oakville Market Update.
MLS® Home Price Index single-family benchmark prices — not an average of the month’s sales. September 2025: Morrison $3,326,900 · Old Oakville $2,538,200 · Ford $1,795,500. August 2026: $3,272,400 · $2,528,000 · $1,729,300.
Listings at a four-year September low, sales close to half of last year, and all three benchmarks down together. Yet the homes that did sell took just 34 days on average. Low activity does not necessarily mean a slow sale.Key insight · September 2026
With only 13 sales across these three communities, buyers have fewer transactions to use as reference points and are negotiating carefully. The 93.7% sale-to-list ratio also shows a meaningful gap between asking prices and where deals are getting done. Preparation and positioning matter, but so does responding quickly to the feedback once the home reaches the market.
With all three benchmarks down and the sale-to-list ratio at a four-year September low, buyers have more negotiating room than in recent Septembers. But good southeast Oakville inventory remains limited. If it’s the one, don’t wait; if it isn’t, don’t chase.
Southeast samples are small and single months can swing sharply. The three-month trend matters more. Year-to-date sales are still 17% ahead of last year, despite the recent slowdown. October will tell us more about whether that slowdown is easing or deepening.
Send us an address and we’ll pull recent sales for comparable homes nearby. No decision required.