Oakville market update — October 2026.
Sales picked up from September but ran 28% below last October, and the year now trails 2025. Homes took longer to sell. The benchmark held level for the month.
October in numbers.
The average sale price moves with the mix of homes sold each month. The MLS® HPI benchmark below tracks like-for-like value and is the steadier gauge.
Sales picked up,
the benchmark held steady.
October produced 193 sales across Oakville — up from 164 in September (revised), but 28% below last October’s 267 and the second-quietest October in four years. September’s report called October the month to watch; the answer is mixed. The usual autumn lift was smaller this year: sales rose 18% from September, against 43% a year ago.
January through October, the year stands at 2,120 sales to last year’s 2,164 — 2% behind, the first time since March that 2026 has trailed. In July the year was 4% ahead.
Supply kept pulling back. 534 new listings came to market, the fewest for an October in four years and 22% below last October. The drop from September is seasonal — listings fell 21–26% over the same month in each of the past three years — but the level remains low.
Homes sold in October spent an average of 38 days on the market, the slowest October in four years and up from September’s 32. The quicker pace seen in September did not carry into October. Sellers received 95.5% of their original asking price on average, close to last October’s 95.2%. The average close of $1.38M was 2.8% above last October, a figure that moves with the mix of homes sold.
The benchmark came in at $1,141,700, level with September (+0.1%) after September’s 2.2% drop. It sits 1.6% below last October; the gap has narrowed mainly because prices fell last fall — the benchmark dropped 1.9% from September to October last year — not because they have risen this year. Prices have paused their slide for now, but sales volume and selling time do not yet support calling this a clear improvement. Across the GTA, the composite benchmark was 4.3% below a year ago.
Benchmark price,
level for the month.
October’s benchmark came in at $1,141,700, up 0.1% from September’s $1,140,100 and 1.6% below last October’s $1,159,800. It remains close to the one-year low set in September.
Average and median prices move with the mix of homes sold each month, and can paint an inaccurate picture of values and trends. The MLS® Home Price Index uses more than 15 years of MLS® System data and statistical models to define a “typical” home for each neighbourhood and housing type, then tracks its value month by month. That like-for-like comparison makes it a more consistent gauge of a neighbourhood’s price levels and trends.
A quieter October
on both sides.
Axis starts at $1.05M to make the gaps readable.
Sales recovered some ground from September but stayed well below last year, and the homes that sold spent longer on the market. Fewer listings town-wide does not mean less competition in every neighbourhood or price range — what matters is the homes competing directly with yours.Key insight · October 2026
Our read. What we watched most closely in October was not whether prices slipped again, but the balance between supply and sales. New listings were 22% below last October, yet sales fell further, by 28%, and the homes that sold spent longer on the market than a year ago — 38 days against 34. On these numbers, fewer homes coming to market has not made homes easier to sell.
Oakville is also not one market. In the three southeast communities, new listings rose 26% on the year in the same month. Whether buying or selling, the more useful starting point is the specific home: its neighbourhood, its price range, and the homes it is actually competing with.
One set of numbers,
three situations.
If you’re selling
New listings are down town-wide, but homes sold in October spent 38 days on the market on average, six more than in September. In a market like this, preparation and positioning before launch carry more weight.
If you’re buying
The benchmark paused, and homes are selling at about 95.5% of original asking on average. Fewer homes were newly listed than in past Octobers, so when the right home comes up, it is worth a serious look.
If you’re waiting
One flat month is not a trend. November will show whether the benchmark holds. We track it every month. See you next issue.
For a closer look at Old Oakville, Morrison and Ford, see the Southeast Oakville Market Brief.
What do these numbers look like
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1235 North Service Rd W · Oakville, ON · L6M 2W2